The stakes feel particularly high to many voters this year. And while there is no shortage of compelling campaign issues, the election carries major significance for taxes.
Built-in changes to the tax code scheduled to occur at the end of 2025 are expected to give the winners of the next election a unique opportunity to reshape tax policy (see our story for more information on what is scheduled to change).
Election results have proven difficult for pollsters to predict over the last several cycles. This year will be no different. Pollsters use historical trends to extrapolate meaning from the raw data they collect, but the current races are unprecedented in important ways. It has been decades since a presidential candidate was renominated after losing a presidential race, and it is historically unusual for a presumptive nominee to be replaced this late in the race.
Predicting the outcome with any certainty may be all but impossible. Nonetheless, there are important elements framing the House, Senate, and White House races that could shape the outcome and shed light on the implications for broader policy.
Senate outlook
Because only one-third of Senate seats are ever up in any cycle, the two parties can face vastly different prospects even when the Senate is evenly divided. This cycle significantly favors Republicans based on the seats that are up for re-election.
Like always, the outcome will depend on individual races, and no one should take any results for granted.
Related election resources
House outlook
Every seat is up in the House every cycle, but parties can still face structural hurdles or enjoy favorable maps. Past election trends, re-districting, retirements, and many other factors can affect the outlook for each party.
Unlike in the Senate, Democrats enjoy a slightly better House map than Republicans.
The outcome in the House can often be affected by trends at the top of the ticket, so the presidential result could have a significant impact on who controls the House.
Presidential outlook
The race features a former President Donald Trump running in his third straight presidential election and Vice President Kamala Harris, who did not face a primary in this cycle. The race is historically unusual, even unprecedented, for many reasons:
- The last time the loser of the previous election was renominated was Richard Nixon in 1968.
- The last time a sitting president declined to run for re-election was Lyndon B. Johnson, also in 1968.
- Before Biden, the latest a leading candidate had dropped out of the race was Harry Truman on March 29, 1952, and Lyndon B. Johnson on March 31, 1968.
- A candidate has not run after surviving an assassination attempt since Ronald Reagan ran in 1984 after surviving an attempt in 1981.
Trump has always been an unconventional candidate and the unique nature of this cycle could make the campaign even more volatile.
Split government or single-party control?
Neither party is expected to approach 60 votes in the Senate, meaning that the reconciliation process could be a very important to for tax policy if either party wins single-party control. The Senate map makes it fairly difficult for Democrats to win both chambers and the presidency, though not impossible. Republicans are themselves hoping to sweep. A close presidential race may increase the chances that underlying factors help drive a split government result. Never before have both chambers flipped in opposite directions, but it is a very realistic possibility this cycle. Split government could make for contentious negotiations over tax policy, and could also prompt aggressive executive action. For more information on the tax platforms of the presidential candidates and how they could translate into tax changes, see our companion pieces.
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